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| JnjeBRMeNkfZP | Michael and Phil: I\'m afraid you\'re going to be ntiappoidsed by our research on global poverty. What we have done is examined the literature on microfinance. Nearly all relevant studies have major issues with possible selection bias, but the couple that seem to correct for it reasonably still show positive effects on quality of life from the presence of loans and all of the problematic studies point in the same direction too (which could be a function of publication bias, but still). I\'d say the empirical evidence weakly points to a positive effect, though much more is needed (especially because this seems like something that would depend HEAVILY on the specific time and place).However, the microfinance organizations we\'ve dealt with have not been able (or willing) to provide a substantive picture of what is going on where (structure of program, characteristics of local economy, etc.) This is a huge problem, and one that made me extremely hesitant to grant one such organization. And one thing I\'ve learned for the future is that we need somehow to be even broader with our causes - because it is really bad to get stuck making a grant within some narrow category of program, and much better to have the leeway to say No microfinance organizations have documented what they\'re doing, so we\'re giving the money to a quality health organization instead. But we give and learn. Despite all the reservations, I don\'t think microfinance is as dangerous as Michael makes it sound. If people are taking the loans and paying them back with interest, it seems pretty safe to assume they\'ve used them for something that made their lives better. The only potential problem is if these institutions are effectively flooding the market with credit, i.e., if there is already sufficient credit available through other means and these institutions are offering unreasonably low interest rates. This is the concern I came in with, and the reason I preferred the pump, but I now don\'t think it\'s a huge concern for a couple reasons:1. The loans are so tiny, and the presence of for-profit microfinance institutions so rare, that it seems much more likely that there is insufficient credit from the private sector. (Knowing the interest rates charged by MFIs in US dollar terms would help check on this. We asked very explicitly for these and weren\'t provided them after repeated requests. Yes, frustrating.)2. Two Board members whose experience I respect, for different reasons, feel pretty adamant that developing-world credit is insufficient rather than excessive. Tim has, I believe, a good deal of up-close experience with these regions; Greg has none, but is a smart guy who has spent a huge chunk of his life studying the patterns of global credit, in a manner that I feel would make his intuitions in this question pretty good.I\'m not sure the situation with the pump is as complex/dangerous as Michael makes it sound either, but let\'s leave that aside. The point is, the concerns with microcredit - provided that the loans are being paid back with interest - seem pretty confined to one dangerous possibility that I feel somewhat confident is not an issue, and the little empirical evidence we have is positive. Yes, this isn\'t enough. Yes, we still have a ton to learn. But given that we had to give a grant in this area, I feel that microfinance was the best way to go. |
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